An exceptionally strong, potentially record-setting “Super El Niño” is developing in the Pacific Ocean, predicted to peak in late 2026 and early 2027.
The large-scale climate phenomenon could bring unusually heavy rain, flooding, droughts, fires, strange temperature shifts, and other weather conditions across the world, including the Bay Area.
According to the National Environmental Education Foundation (NEEF), El Niño and La Niña are two opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a weather pattern that involves changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions throughout the Pacific Ocean and typically occurs every two to seven years with no predictable schedule.
During El Niño, trade winds weaken, which makes the water warmer on the coast of South America. La Niña years strengthen trade winds, which bring cooler water to the coast. These changes in water temperature lead to unusual weather conditions around the world.
According to ABC News, Berkeley weather conditions will be around average throughout November, but the months of December, January, and February are predicted to have higher than average rain probabilities, with one of the three months predicted to almost double average rainfall. This El Niño has a 70 percent chance of exceeding all other El Niño years on record, which means that the conditions will be extreme throughout the entire country.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2026-27 El Niño’s extremity is largely due to the accumulation of warm water beneath the ocean’s surface. This El Niño year is happening alongside global warming, which has intensified the effects of El Niño as a result of rising ocean temperatures. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific were already much higher than usual during the summer of 2026. In mid-August, some parts of the Pacific Ocean’s surface were 2.6 degrees Celsius warmer than usual. Under the surface, this difference in temperature was even more drastic, with some areas experiencing more than eight degrees Celsius of heat than average during July and early August.
Berkeley High School senior Amelia Stern is on the leadership team of Sunrise, a club focused on engaging students in local politics, including climate-related issues. “Climate change intensifies the bad aspects of (weather conditions) that we can’t control,” Stern said, “It’s definitely gonna be a rough winter season.”
Weather changes often impact daily lifestyle habits. Vinny Schlags, a BHS freshman who bikes to school every day, explained how he will need to accommodate his commute to school. “The weather changes will make it a lot harder for me to ride to school, almost impossible,” Schlags said, “I would try to bike, but if the streets that I use are flooded, I will need to get driven to school.”
A large part of the BHS student body bikes or walks to school daily, so these weather effects will be felt among many. However, commute strategies will not be the only change made by BHS students.
“It’s gonna be hard adapting my style to be able to fit the new weather,” Albane Seret, a BHS freshman, said, “I love wearing shorts and flip-flops and summery tops, but those won’t be able to keep me warm and dry during the El Niño weather.”
These adjustments are just a few examples of accommodations that will need to be made throughout the BHS community.
“It’s gonna end up kind of impacting everyone in some way,” Stern said.
As El Niño approaches, BHS students may need to adjust their daily routines, from commuting to school to choosing what to wear. Preparing for heavier rain and unpredictable weather could mean rethinking small decisions that make up a typical day. Even though this weather pattern originated thousands of miles away under the Pacific Ocean, it will still have a large impact on the BHS community.